Beware the trendy upset pick that just seems too good to be true.
In the 2013 NCAA Tournament, that was #14 seed Davidson over the #3 seed Marquette. Even though a 14-3 upset is fairly rare, everyone seemed to be tuned into that game for a possible major bracket buster from the experts to the armchair experts to the Vegas insiders to the statistical models. The consensus was that Marquette was overrated, Davidson was underrated, and it was the perfect mixture for a decent sized upset.
Am I the only one who thinks Davidson is one of the scariest teams to face coming into the tournament?
— Tim™ (@timzim1613) March 18, 2013
I gotta say, Marquette is the most overrated seed in the NCAA tourney as a # 3 and how the hell is Cincy a 10?
— Stanford Steve (@StanfordSteve82) March 18, 2013
Per @RJinVegas, note that 14 seed Davidson is only +4 vs Marquette.
— Travis Haney (@travhaney) March 18, 2013
Nate Silver has No. 14 Davidson with 15.8% chance at Sweet 16; says Marquette 'almost certainly' weakest No. 3 seed http://t.co/BHg5uyxdMT
— Jeff Hartsell (@Jeff_fromthePC) March 19, 2013
https://twitter.com/JonAguiar/status/313757274898329601
Uh-oh. I also picked Davidson. RT @SIPeteThamel The one upset I know I'm picking is Davidson over Marquette.
— David Woods (@DavidWoods007) March 18, 2013
For 39 minutes of game action, it looked to be playing out exactly like everyone thought it would. Davidson had a 6 point lead with a minute to go, 54-48. That’s when Marquette caught fire from deep to stay in the game. Davidson was making their free throws, though. They still led by four points, 58-54, with 20 seconds to play.
But then Jamil Wilson made a three-pointer to make it a one point game and Davidson finally cracked. On the ensuing inbounds pass, Davidson threw it away on the sideline with 6.7 seconds to go. That’s when Marquette’s star player, Vander Blue (also the owner of one of the best names in basketball history) drove down the lane for the winning bucket.
Let’s go to the Cold Take Tournament Archives to see how everyone patting themselves on the back for picking the Davidson upset played out…
https://twitter.com/andyglockner/status/314846499504783360
My hard-hitting analysis Marquette-Davidson: My GOD is Marquette awful.
— Aaron Torres (@Aaron_Torres) March 21, 2013
https://twitter.com/ianscheuring/status/314852402073313280
I should have listened to my advice on the radio this week. Hyped up Davidson over Marquette, just couldn't pull the trigger in my bracket.
— Jeff Borzello (@jeffborzello) March 21, 2013
Marquette's offense is dreadful. Brutal upset versus Davidson 90 secs from now #madness
— Adnan Virk (@adnansvirk) March 21, 2013
Marquette is done. No 3pt ability is killer in this tourney, doesn't help that Davidson is amazing from the free throw line #MarchMadness
— JD Bunkis (@JDBunkis) March 21, 2013
And now the #FreeMoney ML pick, Davidson, is ready to click. I'm too good to you people.
— Joe Strauss (@JoeStrauss) March 21, 2013
There were others who declared Davidson the victors throughout the second half as well…
@bailann @almcafee I was sucked in by Marquette. Regretting that now.
— Jonathan Kealing (@JKealing) March 21, 2013
So my mom showed me her bracket; had #Butler going to the Final Four. I told her #Marquette was gonna beat them. #FeelingtTurrible
— Stephen Hennessey (@S_HennesseyGD) March 21, 2013
Marquette you're drunk go home.
— Nick Cicero (@nickcicero) March 21, 2013
I had Marquette going out in the first round and had second thoughts. Lesson learned: Go with my gut. Always. #MarchMadness
— Austin Hunt (@AustinHunt) March 21, 2013
YUP RT @zadams917: I knew I should've picked Davidson
— Aaron West (@oeste) March 21, 2013
So I had the right section of the bracket and the wrong upset. #davidson #bucknell #ncaa
— Jay Cohen (@jcohenap) March 21, 2013
Hey Marquette this is what you get for having Buzz Lightyear as your coach.
— Jerry Gamblin (@JGamblin) March 21, 2013
If I've learned one lesson today, it's that I grossly overestimated Marquette.
— Pema Levy (@pemalevy) March 21, 2013
Marquette just blew their shot. Dumb foul.
— Carp (@robcarpenter81) March 21, 2013
Davidson are about to shit all over everyone's March Madness brackets.
— Marc Dumont (@MarcPDumont) March 21, 2013
Marquette smh #dobetter
— Coach Davin Meggett (@Meggett_Tron) March 21, 2013
@jeffborzello Also munching on those sour grapes as well. DELICIOUS!
— Brad Evans (@NoisyHuevos) March 21, 2013
Remember folks, it’s never over till it’s over… ESPECIALLY in the NCAA Tournament.
